If you’ve got a summer holiday booked — or you’re planning one — there’s a developing situation you need to know about. A global jet fuel crisis, triggered by conflict in the Middle East, is rapidly reshaping the aviation industry, and Europe is at the sharp end of it.
Flight cancellations are already happening. Fares are going up. And the head of the International Energy Agency has issued a stark warning: Europe could run out of jet fuel within weeks. Here’s what’s going on and what it means for ordinary travellers.
What Caused the Jet Fuel Crisis?
The crisis has its roots in the ongoing war with Iran. In late February 2026, military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil passes. For Europe specifically, the strait is the route for around 40% of its jet fuel imports, and no jet fuel has passed through it since the war began.
Europe’s vulnerability here has been building for years. Since 2009, more than a quarter of the continent’s refineries have been shut down or transformed. That growing reliance on imported fuel — particularly from the Middle East — has left Europe dangerously exposed to exactly this kind of supply shock.
“Europe has maybe six weeks of remaining jet fuel supplies. The global economy faces its largest energy crisis.” — Fatih Birol, IEA Director
How Bad Is It?
Jet fuel prices in Europe have roughly doubled since February 2026, with a metric tonne of aviation fuel now costing around $1,700 — about two and a half times the average price throughout 2025. Analysts at Rystad Energy have described the situation as potentially “systemic,” warning that severe flight cuts could begin as early as May and June.
IEA Director Fatih Birol delivered one of the starkest assessments yet, telling the Associated Press that Europe has “maybe six weeks” of remaining jet fuel supply and calling it the global economy’s “largest energy crisis.” Airline industry body IATA has echoed those concerns, warning that flight cancellations from a lack of fuel could begin by the end of May.
The US has stepped in as an alternative supplier, sending roughly 150,000 barrels a day to Europe this April — but analysts say this is unlikely to be enough, not least because US exports are increasingly being redirected toward Asia, which faces its own acute fuel shortages.
Which Airlines Are Affected?
The impact is being felt across the board. Global flight capacity for May has already been cut by around 3 percentage points, with all but one of the 20 largest airlines in the world reducing their schedules. Here’s what some major carriers have announced:
Ryanair: CEO Michael O’Leary has said the carrier will look to cancel flights and cut summer capacity if the shortage continues.
SAS: The Scandinavian airline has cancelled 1,000 flights in April alone.
Lufthansa: Europe’s biggest carrier has shut down feeder airline CityLine ahead of schedule and is grounding 27 older, less fuel-efficient planes.
KLM: The Dutch carrier has scrapped 80 return flights at Amsterdam Schiphol in the coming month.
easyJet: Now expects a pretax loss of £540–560 million for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year.
Virgin Atlantic: CEO Corneel Koster has warned the airline will struggle to turn a profit this year even after adding fuel surcharges.
What About Asia?
Asia has been hit even harder than Europe. Carriers there tend to have less fuel-hedging protection, making them immediately vulnerable to price spikes. Across key Gulf-facing hubs, flight volumes have reportedly fallen to roughly one-third of normal levels. Chinese travellers have been sharing late-notice cancellation complaints on social media, with the disruption hitting just ahead of the May Golden Week public holiday.
Is There Any Good News?
There was a brief moment of optimism on Friday when Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial traffic, causing Brent crude to fall by as much as 11%. However, analysts caution that any resolution remains fragile, with both sides still seeking leverage. Even if a ceasefire is reached and the strait reopens soon, damaged infrastructure is likely to take months or years to fully repair, and jet fuel prices are not expected to return to 2025 levels before autumn at the earliest.
The EU has confirmed it may face supply issues “in the near future” and is preparing a joint action plan. IATA has also called for coordinated government action, including slot relief and rationing plans, should conditions worsen.
What Should You Do If You Have a Holiday Booked?
The honest answer is: don’t panic, but do stay informed. Here are the practical steps worth taking right now:
Check your airline’s communications. Sign up for email or app alerts if you haven’t already, so you hear about any schedule changes immediately.
Know your rights. Under UK and EU261 rules, if your flight is cancelled by the airline, you’re entitled to a full refund or rebooking — plus compensation in some circumstances.
Check your travel insurance. Policies vary — some will cover disruption caused by a fuel crisis, others won’t. Read the small print now, not at the airport.
Be flexible if you can. If your travel dates are moveable, later in the year may see more stability as supply chains adjust.
Budget for higher costs. Even if your flight goes ahead as planned, expect fuel surcharges, pricier add-ons, and higher fares if you need to rebook anything.
The situation is moving fast and the picture could change significantly in the coming days. We’ll continue to update this article as the story develops.