It’s FA Cup Final day. Chelsea vs Manchester City at Wembley, 3pm kick-off — and on paper, it’s one of the most one-sided finals in years. But that’s what they said before Leicester beat Everton in 1995, and nobody writes off a cup final until the final whistle blows.
The basics
The 2026 FA Cup Final sees Chelsea take on Manchester City at Wembley Stadium, kicking off at 3pm BST today, Saturday 16 May. You can watch live on BBC One, BBC iPlayer, TNT Sports and HBO Max.
The story so far
Manchester City are appearing in the FA Cup Final for the fourth consecutive year — a record no club has ever achieved before — but they have lost the last two finals and are desperate to avoid a third successive defeat. Ironically, the only team to have ever lost three consecutive FA Cup Finals is Chelsea themselves, who went out at Wembley in 2020, 2021 and 2022 — making this their first final appearance since.
For City, this is also about far more than the cup. A domestic treble is still on, with City sitting just two points behind Arsenal in the Premier League title race with games to spare — and they have already secured the Carabao Cup this season.
The form guide tells a brutal story
City have won eight of their last nine matches in all competitions and already lifted the Carabao Cup — while Chelsea have won just three of their last twelve games, with all three victories coming in this competition.
The two sides met twice in the Premier League this season: a 1-1 draw at the Etihad, and then a 3-0 City win at Stamford Bridge in April. Chelsea’s last victory over Manchester City came in the 2021 Champions League Final — and they haven’t beaten them in the 13 games since.
Chelsea’s situation is desperate
Chelsea’s season has been tumultuous. They sacked Enzo Maresca and then Liam Rosenior, leaving U21 head coach Calum McFarlane as interim manager heading into Wembley. They currently sit ninth in the Premier League and are not guaranteed any European football next season — meaning losing today would be nothing short of a disaster for the club.
The silver lining? Enzo Fernandez has become increasingly influential under McFarlane, while Cole Palmer remains Chelsea’s most dangerous creative outlet. Pedro Neto, Robert Sanchez and Alejandro Garnacho have also shown signs of returning to fitness, though confirmation of their availability is still unclear.
What about Guardiola’s future?
There is a growing feeling at the Etihad that Pep Guardiola is ready to call it quits after 10 years at the club — meaning today’s final could be his final act in charge. If City do lift the cup, it would be some way to go out.
What the supercomputer says
The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the match — and Manchester City won in normal time in 57.6% of them. Chelsea were given just a 20.6% chance of victory, with a draw rated at 21.8%.
The expert predictions broadly align. ESPN’s Rob Dawson predicts a Man City 3-1 win, while Julien Laurens goes for 2-1 to City — both citing Chelsea’s disarray and City’s settled, confident squad.
Our take
The numbers point one way, the history points one way, and the form points one way. But Chelsea have won every cup game they’ve needed to, and cup finals have a funny way of defying logic. If Palmer or Fernandez can produce a moment of magic early, who knows.
City are the overwhelming favourites — and probably rightly so. But get the snacks in, because it’s FA Cup Final day, and you never quite know.
Chelsea vs Manchester City, Wembley, 3pm. BBC One and TNT Sports.